Chris' Potato Salad Spanish Tortilla

Chris made an oil and vinaigrette potato salad (steamed potatoes (sliced before steaming), green onions, olive oil, mustard, vinegar, salt and pepper) for Fathers Day. With the leftovers, she made a 'Spanish Tortilla"

To give you an idea of quantities, here is the list of ingredients for a Spanish Tortilla posted on the NY Times website:

INGREDIENTS

1-1/4 lbs.       potatoes
   1     each     onion
   8     each     eggs 
1/4     cup      olive oil

Chris used her leftover potato salad, in which the potatoes had already been cooked. The quantity was enough to fill the pie plate as shown above. Here is her process:

PROCESS

Arrange potato salad in pie plate
Heat @ 325F for 20 minutes
Beat eggs with salt and pepper (quantity based on personal taste)
Pour egg mixture over potatoes and let sit for 10 to 15 minutes
Bake @ 300F for 15 to 20 minutes

CHRIS' OTHER RECIPES:

Bacon Broccoli Frittata

USA COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Age

Using data from CDC's Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State and COVID Data Tracker (CDC publishes a weekly update on Wednesdays and the data date is shown on the graph. 

Number of people by age group who have contracted and died from COVID-19

Age group	Population	Cases	Cases per 100,000 age group population	Deaths	Deaths per 100,000 age group population
0-17	73,776,684	4,023,705	5,454	532	0.7
18-44	117,055,222	11,993,200	10,246	16,018	14
45-64	83,904,335	7,519,955	8,963	106,345	127
65-74	30,492,316	2,023,133	6,635	132,992	436
75+	21,938,877	1,648,079	7,512	340,853	1,554
TOTALS:	327,167,434	27,208,072		596,740

COVID-19 case and death percentages in tabular form:

Age group	% of Population	% of total cases	% of total deaths	% death / age group cases
0-17	22.6%	14.8%	0.1%	0.01%
18-44	35.8%	44.1%	2.7%	0.1%
45-64	25.6%	27.6%	17.8%	1.4%
65-74	9.3%	7.4%	22.3%	6.6%
75+	6.7%	6.1%	57.1%	20.7%
TOTALS:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

One of the issues that has been raised during the pandemic is how to determine the 'true' number of people that have had COVID-19 and, consequently, how many have died from the disease. The BBC has published an article, Coronavirus, What is the true death toll of the pandemic?, which illustrates this conundrum.

BBC graph showing the reported Coronavirus deaths and "excess" deaths.

Here is the CDC's analysis of data illustrating excess deaths due to COVID-19 :

Graph used in Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

ANIMATION: elongated inbetweens

On page 96 of his book, The Animator's Survival Kit, Richard Willams introduces elongated inbetweens. The pounding on a door is one example he uses.  In addition to including an elongated inbetween (Drawing 2, below), he also includes a couple of different timings for the animation.

Here are the three drawings used:

Here is the animation included the two extremes (Drawings 1 and 3) shot on twos:

Drawings 13 13 13

The elongated inbetween is included in the next animation and it and the extremes are shot on ones:

Drawings 123 123 123

The last animation, the inbetweens are shot on ones; the extremes are shot on twos:

Drawings 1 23 21 23 21 23 2

early animations

Here are the beginnings, hopefully, of my journey into animation.  They were inspired by Marisa Lewis' facebook group, Daily Sketching Workout (DSW).

DSW: a creature that only eats . . .

DSW: a waterproof outfit

DSW: finding a coded message

DSW: a letter sealed with wax

DSW: optical illusion

Doing these has made me aware of how little I know about animation, so I'm endeavoring to read Richard Williams' book, The Animator's Survival Kit.

a fragile parcel

a fragile parcel:

a humble bubble animation study:

. . . and, a touch of sweetness for your day:

(currently working on identifying source and copyright)

ANIMATION: a winged dinosaur

For fb group: Daily Sketch Workout

Doing this involved an exploration into animals that fly and using procreate to do an animation.

My first thought about flying dinosaurs is they had wings of skin.  So I found some videos of bats flying:

A little research showed me that dinosaur wings were more like bird wings.  I found bird videos to study:

The first one was a profile where I started to see the rotation of the wing tip, but I was unable to capture it.  So I tried another video of a bird in flight:

This was a three quarter view and it allowed me to see the way that birds 'grab' the air, almost like a swimmer doing the butterfly stroke. I was starting to see the movement of the various parts of the wing, but I was sure I was missing the subtleties.  So I looked for slow motion studies of birds. I found a wonderful resource, Birds in Flight by Wildlife World.  I also discovered that I could reduce the speed of the YouTube video by a factor of four.  This allowed me to glimpse the bird grabbing the air and 'slapping it with its wingtips. I would love to see how the feathers participate in this 'slap'.  I imagine them acting like cascading little paddles.

To make my flying dinosaur, I took some artistic license and assumed that those pterosaurs had feathers and just glued a pterosaur head on the goose.  I used Procreate to make the animation and discovered that I had to add the background to each drawing. The bad aspect of this is it's tedious. The good thing about it is that you have complete control of the frame. After putting the background with each frame, i realized that I had to tone down the background. To make this tedious exercise less onerous, I played  by varying the opacity.  This serendipitously ended up creating an actively misty background.

an insect musician

For the facebook group: Daily Sketching Workout, the May 13 topic: an insect musician

Using Affinity Designer to render the violin was worth a post of its own.

Daily Sketch Workout, delayed

Wednesday's topic was "an insect musician". Today is Saturday and, although I started the "DAILY" sketch on Wednesday, my ambitions took me on a melodious tangent.  Needless to say, my insect is not quite ready for his debut.

I did a rough doodle of my insect musician, deciding that the violin would be my insidious insect's instrument. When I began to draw a violin, its beautiful intricacies defeated my sketching talents. After some soul searching I decided to bite the bullet and create a violin vector drawing with my new Affinity Designer app.

Here is the result:

Along the way I discovered that I didn't know jack about a violin, so I did some googling and at least learned the names of the violin's parts and sections (with a couple of hints to help me remember them):

If you do amuse yourself with the quizzes, here are the parts of the violin labeled; and the parts of the bow labeled.

Now I have no excuse not to finish Wednesday's Daily Sketch Workout.

Charting COVID-19 in my families' counties, states, regions

 

7 graphs are included below:

1. New Covid-19 Cases for Family's Counties
2. New Covid-19 Cases for Family's Counties per 100,000 population
3. New Covid-19 Cases for 5 States
4. New Covid-19 Cases for 5 States per 100,000 population
5. New Covid-19 Deaths for 5 States 
6. New Covid-19 Cases by Census Regions
7. New Covid-19 Cases by Economic Analysis Regions
8. New Covid-19 Deaths by Economic Analysis Regions

1. Watching how we're doing with managing the coronavirus in three California counties, one county in Kansas, and two parishes in Louisiana.



2. This graph uses new cases per 100,000 population to help compare the six counties. It made the escalation due to the meatpacking clusters in Seward county Kansas starling obvious.




3. Looking at new cases for five states gives me a larger perspective. I added Tennessee and Georgia since we have friends who live there.




4. To better see how these states compare, I normalize the data using new cases per 100,000.




5. I also track deaths in each of the five states.




6. Going up another level, I look at the new cases by census regions. Here's my post that includes a listing of the states in the Census Regions. NOTE: Northeast data affected by Massachusetts making a -7,342 adjustment 9/3/2020




7. I also look at new cases by Economic Analysis Regions. Here's my post that includes a listing of the states in the Economic Analysis Regions. 

8. A look at deaths by Economic Analysis Regions brings up the question: Why are death rates in New England and the Mideast states nearly 3 times as much as other regions?  

Finally, I look at Coronavirus in the United States on the NYTimes website

Star Wars Day - May 4th

coded messages

waterproofed

a creature that only eats . . .

. . . couches

Chris' Bacon Broccoli Frittata

Chris makes food delicious. She also has that super power that all really good cooks seem to enjoy, the ability to use what's available. Today she decided to make a Spiralized Potato Frittata, except she didn't have any potatoes or cheddar cheese. So she used broccoli and cream cheese instead. Oh, she did have a recipe to follow. It has 7 ingredients. She used the eggs.

Here is Chris' version of Spiralized Potato Frittata without the potatoes:


INGREDIENTS:

4 oz pancetta

12 eggs

1/2 t garlic powder

10 twists of black pepper

3 green onions

6 oz cream cheese

4 oz cotija cheese

2 t miso (opt.) or 1/2 t salt

8 mushrooms, thick slices

1-1/2 cups blanched broccoli, chopped (Chris accused me of over buying broccoli [no memory of this misstep], so she blanched the overage and bagged and froze it.)

PROCESS:

Using 12 inch skillet

1. Render pancetta till crispy. Set aside.

2. Saute mushrooms till not wet.

3. Add broccoli 3-5 minutes after frozen crystals disappeared.

4. Add sliced green onions

5. Beat eggs with garlic powder, black pepper, and miso (opt.: pinch of crushed red pepper).

6. Sprinkle cheeses on top

7. Sprinkle pancetta on top

8. Cook on stove for 5 minutes to set bottom

9. Bake at 400 F for 15 to 20 minutes till eggs are puffed and set.

10. Take out and let rest for a few minutes

11. Eat it!

CHRIS' OTHER RECIPES:

Potato Salad Spanish Tortilla

Son & Dad: something's gone wrong here . . .

Son & Dad: herculean

Son & Dad: pet peeve

Son & Dad: EASTER!

Disposition of COVID-19 Patients

Questions that caused me to make this diagram:

1. What percentage of patients with COVID-19 are hospitalized?
2. Of those hospitalized, what percentage receive intensive care?
3. How are those hospitalized distributed by age?
4. Of those hospitalized, what percentage recover? What percentage die? (Please note, I made the assumption that no one died while Isolated at Home.)
5. How are the people that die from COVID-19 distributed by age? 
6. How many people my age in my community have died from COVID-19?

[Since we’re in the midst of this battle, the dust hasn’t settled, the data’s not set . . . my numbers are based on ‘snapshots’ taken by others, so please view the percentages as approximations.]

1. What percentage of patients with COVID-18 are hospitalized?

Based on an analysis performed by the CDC on March 16, 2020 using data from 4,226 cases, 12% were hospitalized.

Reference: CDC Severe Outcome Among Patients with COVID-19 in USA (Feb 12 - Mar 16, 2020)

2. Of those hospitalized, what percentage receive intensive care?

From an analysis done by Thomas C. Tsai, Benjamin H. Jacobson, and Ashish K. Jha of American hospital capacity on March 17, 2020, 21.51% of COVID-19 cases needing hospitalization will require intensive care.

Reference: American Hospital Capacity And Projected Need for COVID-19 Patient Care, Health Affairs Blog, March 17, 2020.

3 How are those hospitalized distributed by age?

Based on data from Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations as of April 4, 2020, and population of age groups:

Thus, for each 100 people who are hospitalized for COVID-19,

• 20 are younger than 50
• 31 are between 50 and 64
• 23 are between 65 and 74
• 17 are between 75 and 84
• 9 are 85 or older

4. Of those hospitalized, what percentage recover? What percentage die? (Please note, I made the assumption that no one died while Isolated at Home.)

Using the numbers from the American hospital capacity analysis:

PROJECTED COVID-19
Cases	98,876,254
Hospitalizations	20,598,725

On April 10, 2020 it was reported that there were 18,742 deaths and 496,912 COVID-19 cases. This is 3.77%. Multiplying the number of cases in the hospital capacity analysis by this percentage yields 3,729,310, which is 18.1% of the projected hospitalizations.

Reference: American Hospital Capacity And Projected Need for COVID-19 Patient Care, Health Affairs Blog, March 17, 2020.

5. How are the people that die from COVID-19 distributed by age?

Based on data from CDC Coronavirus (COVID-19) Surveillance as of April 4, 2020:

Age Group	Deaths	% of COVID-19 Deaths	Population	% of Population
<1	0	0.00%	3,848,208	1.18%
1-4	1	0.02%	15,962,067	4.88%
5-14	1	0.02%	41,075,169	12.55%
15-24	6	0.12%	42,970,800	13.13%
25-34	46	0.92%	45,697,774	13.97%
35-44	129	2.59%	41,277,888	12.62%
45-54	291	5.84%	41,631,699	12.72%
54-64	624	12.52%	42,272,636	12.92%
65-74	1,085	21.77%	30,492,316	9.32%
75-84	1,372	27.53%	15,394,374	4.71%
>85	1,429	28.67%	6,544,503	2.00%
Total US	4,984	100.00%	327,167,434	100.00%

6. How many people my age in my community have died from COVID-19?

First, I need to know how many people in my age group are likely to get COVID-19. I'd like to use USA numbers, but the CDC has an amazing organization scheme that guarantees clicking in circles, Luckily I found Age Distribution of Covid-19 Cases in Canada as of April 11, 2020 (at least we’re on the same continent).

Second, I need to know how many people in my age group who have COVID-19 are likely to die. I found Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis, a Lancet Infectious Diseases study published March 30, 2020.

Assuming my community has 1000 COVID-19 cases:

		CANADA	Number of Cases in Community	1,000
Age Cohort	Infection Fatality Rate	COVID-19 cases		Distribution by age	Fatlities using IFR
<19		5%
20-29		13%
30-39		14%
40-49		16%
0-49	0.2%	48%		480	1
50-59	0.6%	18%		180	1
60-69	1.9%	14%		140	3
70-79	4.3%	9%		90	4
>80	7.8%	11%		110	9
		100%	TOTALS:	1000	17

So, for me, being in the 70-79 age cohort, an estimated 90 of the 1000 are in this cohort and an estimated 4 of those will die from the virus.

[I tried a third time to get USA numbers, but CDC uses an age cohort of 65+ in their age distribution of COVID-19 cases. Consequently I couldn't logically combine the three Infection Facility Rates that apply to parts of this cohort.]