Disposition of COVID-19 Patients

Questions that caused me to make this diagram:

1. What percentage of patients with COVID-19 are hospitalized?
2. Of those hospitalized, what percentage receive intensive care?
3. How are those hospitalized distributed by age?
4. Of those hospitalized, what percentage recover? What percentage die? (Please note, I made the assumption that no one died while Isolated at Home.)
5. How are the people that die from COVID-19 distributed by age? 
6. How many people my age in my community have died from COVID-19?

[Since we’re in the midst of this battle, the dust hasn’t settled, the data’s not set . . . my numbers are based on ‘snapshots’ taken by others, so please view the percentages as approximations.]

1. What percentage of patients with COVID-18 are hospitalized?

Based on an analysis performed by the CDC on March 16, 2020 using data from 4,226 cases, 12% were hospitalized.

Reference: CDC Severe Outcome Among Patients with COVID-19 in USA (Feb 12 - Mar 16, 2020)

2. Of those hospitalized, what percentage receive intensive care?

From an analysis done by Thomas C. Tsai, Benjamin H. Jacobson, and Ashish K. Jha of American hospital capacity on March 17, 2020, 21.51% of COVID-19 cases needing hospitalization will require intensive care.

Reference: American Hospital Capacity And Projected Need for COVID-19 Patient Care, Health Affairs Blog, March 17, 2020.

3 How are those hospitalized distributed by age?

Based on data from Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations as of April 4, 2020, and population of age groups:

Thus, for each 100 people who are hospitalized for COVID-19,

• 20 are younger than 50
• 31 are between 50 and 64
• 23 are between 65 and 74
• 17 are between 75 and 84
• 9 are 85 or older

4. Of those hospitalized, what percentage recover? What percentage die? (Please note, I made the assumption that no one died while Isolated at Home.)

Using the numbers from the American hospital capacity analysis:

PROJECTED COVID-19
Cases	98,876,254
Hospitalizations	20,598,725

On April 10, 2020 it was reported that there were 18,742 deaths and 496,912 COVID-19 cases. This is 3.77%. Multiplying the number of cases in the hospital capacity analysis by this percentage yields 3,729,310, which is 18.1% of the projected hospitalizations.

Reference: American Hospital Capacity And Projected Need for COVID-19 Patient Care, Health Affairs Blog, March 17, 2020.

5. How are the people that die from COVID-19 distributed by age?

Based on data from CDC Coronavirus (COVID-19) Surveillance as of April 4, 2020:

Age Group	Deaths	% of COVID-19 Deaths	Population	% of Population
<1	0	0.00%	3,848,208	1.18%
1-4	1	0.02%	15,962,067	4.88%
5-14	1	0.02%	41,075,169	12.55%
15-24	6	0.12%	42,970,800	13.13%
25-34	46	0.92%	45,697,774	13.97%
35-44	129	2.59%	41,277,888	12.62%
45-54	291	5.84%	41,631,699	12.72%
54-64	624	12.52%	42,272,636	12.92%
65-74	1,085	21.77%	30,492,316	9.32%
75-84	1,372	27.53%	15,394,374	4.71%
>85	1,429	28.67%	6,544,503	2.00%
Total US	4,984	100.00%	327,167,434	100.00%

6. How many people my age in my community have died from COVID-19?

First, I need to know how many people in my age group are likely to get COVID-19. I'd like to use USA numbers, but the CDC has an amazing organization scheme that guarantees clicking in circles, Luckily I found Age Distribution of Covid-19 Cases in Canada as of April 11, 2020 (at least we’re on the same continent).

Second, I need to know how many people in my age group who have COVID-19 are likely to die. I found Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis, a Lancet Infectious Diseases study published March 30, 2020.

Assuming my community has 1000 COVID-19 cases:

		CANADA	Number of Cases in Community	1,000
Age Cohort	Infection Fatality Rate	COVID-19 cases		Distribution by age	Fatlities using IFR
<19		5%
20-29		13%
30-39		14%
40-49		16%
0-49	0.2%	48%		480	1
50-59	0.6%	18%		180	1
60-69	1.9%	14%		140	3
70-79	4.3%	9%		90	4
>80	7.8%	11%		110	9
		100%	TOTALS:	1000	17

So, for me, being in the 70-79 age cohort, an estimated 90 of the 1000 are in this cohort and an estimated 4 of those will die from the virus.

[I tried a third time to get USA numbers, but CDC uses an age cohort of 65+ in their age distribution of COVID-19 cases. Consequently I couldn't logically combine the three Infection Facility Rates that apply to parts of this cohort.]