Tracking COVID-19 Vaccinations and Deaths

Each day I check to see how we Americans are doing on 'conquering' COVID-19 by checking with the NYTimes for The Latest Case Count and then to See How the Vaccine Rollout is Going. And on a weekly basis I get a breakdown of coronavirus cases and deaths by age group to update my blog page.  From this information I can intuit the progress the vaccinations are making towards helping us manage the pandemic in the U.S..

But I want to know more.

This is my attempt to get a handle on how vaccinations in US is affecting the number of COVID-19 related deaths by looking at the deaths and vaccinations by age group.

According to the CDC's COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States, here is a breakdown of vaccinations by age (18+ and 65+) as of June 30, 2021:

Age Group	Population	Vaccinations		Percent of Population
		1 dose	2 dose*	1 dose	2 dose*
TOTAL	332,410,303	181,339,416	155,884,601	54.6%	46.9%
18 years and older	259,016,872	172,295,929	149,112,608	66.5%	57.6%
65 years and older	54,681,549	48,223,331	42,846,087	88.2%	78.4%
* Includes J&J vaccinations

For a more granular view of the distributions of vaccinations, USA Facts have graphs showing the distribution by sex, age, and ethnicity in its article US COVID-19 Vaccine Progress. I've captured the age distribution numbers from the graph and put them in the following table:

Age Group	Percent of Population		Population	Vaccinations
	1 dose	2 dose		1 dose	2 dose
0-17 years	11.3%	8.3%	72,445,882	8,170,896	5,999,803
18-24 years	44.3%	35.9%	30,596,589	13,554,913	10,974,100
25-39 years	48.8%	41.1%	68,408,885	33,398,815	28,136,891
40-49 years	57.9%	49.7%	40,581,517	23,493,511	20,180,817
50-64 years	68.5%	60.0%	62,943,343	43,102,144	37,757,021
65-74 years	84.2%	74.8%	31,576,388	26,597,910	23,614,401
75 years and over	81.7%	72.4%	22,498,818	18,370,827	16,285,109
No age info			3,358,880	14,650,400	12,936,459
TOTAL	54.6%	46.9%	332,410,303	181,339,416	155,884,601

To examine coronavirus deaths, I started tracking the week-to-week differences from my age distribution reports. Here is a table that shows percent increase or decrease over the four weeks ending April 28 and May 29, 2021 compared to previous four weeks alongside current vaccination percentage:

COVID-19 Deaths for last 4 weeks compared to previous 4 weeks				Vaccinations administered
Age Group	% Change 4/28/21	% Change 5/26/21	% Change 6/23/21	Percent of Population
				1 dose	2 dose
0-17 years	-18%	-26%	4%	24.9%	21.7%
18-29 years	-27%	11%	-19%	43.1%	34.2%
30-39 years	-16%	4%	-24%	47.8%	39.7%
40-49 years	-27%	-4%	-28%	56.9%	48.2%
50-64 years	-32%	-3%	-35%	67.6%	58.6%
65-74 years	-40%	-12%	-36%	83.7%	74.0%
75 years and over	-41%	-15%	-40%	81.1%	71.7%
All ages	-38%	-11%	-37%	53.5%	45.36%

So what does this table tell me? On the plus side it's telling me that COVID-19 related are trending downward but there are some hiccoughs (Note: % change not negative for 0-17 for four weeks ending 6/23/21).